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Author Topic: Out on A Limb  (Read 294 times)

Ho Daddy!

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Out on A Limb
« on: February 01, 2010, 10:21:05 AM »

I'm going out on a limb here, I think a sleeper contender for Kovy might be Detroit. I know that this might seem crazy, but the Wings are kind of a "dark-horse" right now, and adding Ilya Kovalchuk would do a lot to bring some freshness into the Detroit locker room. Detroit has been hampered by injuries all season and sits on the bubble in the West. While some might say this gives the Wings an excuse, I say it also gives Ken a reason to fear that Detroit might not actually be able to match up to Chicago, SJ, even Vancouver in the West.

Acquiring Kovalchuk would change all that for Detroit and would instantly make the competition's eyes light up coming to Detroit. The only question I'd ask is if Kovy could fit in with Detroit. Detroit likes to focus on puck possession and Kovy might be too big of a "giveaway" liability in Detroit, perhaps rendering him somewhat counter-effective.

But would Ken Holland want Kovy? I mean, almost every GM in the league toys with the thought of adding a superstar like Kovy to their roster for a cup push, but would Ken Holland actually sit down and say: "this is a guy I want, I want Ilya to be a Detroit Red Wing". I'm not an avid Red Wing follower, so I can't really say, but judging by the Red Wings of the past, they are not typically a big buyer at the deadline.

However, that being said, Lidstrom is in his final year of his current deal, and his play this season has tailed off incredibly. If Lidstrom is contemplating retirement, Holland might be encouraged to make one more big run at a cup with his aging friend - Holland has frequently stated that the day Lidstrom retires, is the day that Holland resigns as GM.

It's worth noting that the Wings are not nearly as tight to the cap this year: they have about 2.6 mil in cap space available, which is enough to absorb the remainder of Kovy's 6.4 mil cap hit. I'm not too familiarized with the concept of LTIR injury replacement, but the Red Wings also have 5 mil there as well. If a team can access LTIR, then the Wings have A LOT of playing room (maybe even enough to acquire a D-man, Kubina? Kaberle?)

As to what the cost for Kovulchuk's services would be, I think the Wings are a team that has a lot of assets that could be sacrificed for Ilya. Earlier this season I heard Filppula's name being floated as potential trade bait, while more recently Ville Leino's name has been circling the rumour mill. Either of these players could be seen as receivable by the Thrashers in any deal. Darren Helm is a younger player who would certainly fit in with Atlanta - although Detroit may be hard to part with Helm, he does appear to trapped behind a mass of forward. Justin Abelkader, Landon Ferraro and Jakub Kindl are all prospects with Detroit and as such would be welcome additions to Atlanta.

Kindl (a D man) is intriguing as he is Detroits highest ranked prospect, drafted in '05, and is basically knocking on Detroits door. Kindl could go both ways, he could become a victim of Detroit's depth and shipped off (like Quincy) or Holland might actively make room for the young player with aging veterans Lidstrom and Rafalski approaching downtrends of their game.

So essentially, the Red Wings clearly have both the cap space required and a large amount of assets that could be sacrificed for high-priced talent (i.e. Kovulchuk) But the question is what do the Wings see themselves as doing? In my mind Detroit has 3 potential frames of mind:
1) They are only 1 year removed from 2 successive cup trips, the injuries have played a huge roll in their point total and Detroit is actually still a favorite in the West, on par with or better than Chicago, SJ, and Vancouver, the team they have now, as is, is still good enough to win the West and potentially the cup, they roll with what they have;

2) Detroit is still a legit, contender in the West, but just a step below Chicago and SJ. With a little added help, Detroit can once again regain supremency. Seeing Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Fanzen, Zetter, and Raflaski age one more year of their diminishing prime (for some of them) encourages Holland to become a bit more of a dealer than the past, using his cap space and extra assets to acquire some big name help; or,

3) Detroit's injuries and increased age have been too much of a factor this year. Holland doesn't risk sacrificing any of his youth, as he doesn't see potential acquisitions being either worth the cost in assets, or enough to get Detroit over their Western competition. Holland rolls the dice with what the Wings have, letting Nature take its course and a bit more of a youth movement than Detroit has been recently used to ensues over the next 2-3 years featuring many of Detroits current prospects and young playerrs taking staring roles.

Brandon, as a true Wing fan I'm curious of your opinion on this topic. Would the Wings fancy Kovy, could you see the Wings making a big deal or two to get them back on the map in the West?

If Kovy even has the slightest chance of fitting the Detroit system, then I am saying the Red Wings are the darkhorse candidate to shock everyone and nab Ilya. The wings have the cap space and the assets that it would take to nab Kovy. I could see Kovy wearing a Winged Wheel at the deadline.
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Brandon Allin

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Re: Out on A Limb
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2010, 08:36:45 PM »

In theory, it feels like it could work, but I'm reluctant to believe it's even a possibility for two reasons:

1) As you stated, Holland has stated that he refuses to mortgage the future in an effort to patch holes.

2) Kovalchuk has next to no regard for playing in his own end, which is something that this organization values above all else.

With that said, it's hard to predict just what Kenny will do come deadline day. Sure, it appears that we have a handful of areas that could use some upholstery, but people quickly forget that we're still without our best net-front presence (something that has proven to be extremely valuable in the past), and a premiere, 35-goal power forward, who is also arguably the most clutch playoff performer on this team. In fact, getting Franzen back just might feel like a blockbuster in itself.

Too hard to predict at this point. We'll have to wait and see.

Great post.

Brandon Allin

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Re: Out on A Limb
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2010, 08:37:42 PM »

Also, the only reason we have the cap space you mentioned is because of injured bodies. When healthy, we're over the cap.

Ho Daddy!

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Re: Out on A Limb
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2010, 08:45:21 PM »

Also, the only reason we have the cap space you mentioned is because of injured bodies. When healthy, we're over the cap.


Thanks for the kudos.

Well with the injuries, especially those to Kronwall, Franzen would they not have allowed for LTIR status, therefore their salaries would be off the books and basically the Wings would be collecting "cap savings/interest" each day in relation to their daily salaries? I'm not sure how it all works, but I figured if that was the jist of it then the Wings would be able to use their "cap interest" to take on additional salary at any point in time.
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Brandon Allin

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Re: Out on A Limb
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2010, 12:30:41 AM »

Also, the only reason we have the cap space you mentioned is because of injured bodies. When healthy, we're over the cap.


Thanks for the kudos.

Well with the injuries, especially those to Kronwall, Franzen would they not have allowed for LTIR status, therefore their salaries would be off the books and basically the Wings would be collecting "cap savings/interest" each day in relation to their daily salaries? I'm not sure how it all works, but I figured if that was the jist of it then the Wings would be able to use their "cap interest" to take on additional salary at any point in time.


I also thought exactly that, but I have read several statements from Ken Holland over the course of the last two weeks, each stating that when Franzen returns, we will be over the cap by approximately 1.5 million, which means more than one body must be moved. Brad May will undoubtedly be the first candidate, but beyond that, it's a mystery.

Brandon Allin

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Re: Out on A Limb
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2010, 05:01:12 PM »